Not Much Expected from Arab Summit – Analysts

Friday, 23 March 2007
By Sabria S. Jawhar
The Saudi Gazette

JEDDAH
FAILURES of previous Arab summits appear to have dimmed the expectations from the Riyadh gathering of 22 Arab heads of state next week.

Despite their general optimism, many Saudi political analysts are not expecting much from the March 28-29 Arab League summit.
Hussein Shobokshi, a writer and a political analyst, said people are expecting a lot out of this summit especially that it comes at a critical moment when the Arab region is passing through tough times and the volume of foreign troops in the region is on the rise.

He does not expect any magic solutions. But he is optimistic considering the fact that the present situation necessitates at least coordination among Arab countries to overcome such crises.

Lebanon is the most important issue on the agenda of the summit. With Saudi efforts a solution is expected in Lebanon.

There are talks with Syria to come to a solution that brings together different factions in Lebanon and break the deadlock between the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority and the pro-Syrian opposition.

“Lebanon seems to be the most promising file among the suggested topics on the summit’s agenda,” he said.

The situation in Iraq, according to Shobokshi, is more complicated as foreign parties with different interests are involved.

“The situation is Iraq is more complicated simply because Iran and America are involved and they both are not attending the summit,” he said.

The involvement of those parties with their different interests as well as their influence would affect any positive outcome on Iraq, he said.

But, on the other hand, the intensified Saudi diplomacy has largely been effective in containing the Iranian influence in Iraq and Lebanon as well as Palestine.

Bringing the Iranians in and talking to them have reduced their influence in places where they seem to be getting stronger. People in Lebanon, for instance, seem to have less fear of a possible civil war.

The absence of Libya from the summit, Shobokshi said, will minimize the possibility of reaching an Arab-Arab solution to the Darfour crisis. Libya, he added, was a key player in the situation in Darfour and its absence will affect the attempts to reach a solution.

He noted no logical reason for Libya’s boycotting the summit other than its attempt to undermine the increasing weight and role that the Kingdom is gaining in the Arab and Islamic world.

Libya, though, he said, seems not to be the only country that does not want success from this summit.

United States prompted by Israel, he added, does not seem to be interested in any united Arab stand. However, he expects the Saudi initiative for Palestinian-Israeli peace may float again in this summit.

Hamad Al-Baheli, a writer and a political analyst, said the summit would not come up with absolute resolution to the present crises in the region but it would issue decisions that would bring Arab nations closer together and eliminate disputes among them.

“It would most probably pave the way for a future understanding of the position and role of each country in the region,” he said.

The success of the summit, he added, would be measured by its ability to contain the present disputes and to stop the situation form spinning out of control.

Moreover, he said, current events in the Arab arena required looking into effective solutions, and thus noted the importance of holding the summit at this time.

Though, he warned against exaggerations and great expectations that go beyond reaching an understanding and united stand on the international issues such as the Arab initiative.

The summit, he added, might define the way Sudan should deal with the United Nations and the role of Syria and Iran in both Iraq and Lebanon.

He did not note any significance in the change of the summit’s venue from Sharm El-Sheikh to Riyadh other than emphasizing the role played by the Saudi leadership. Having King Abdullah as chairman will further improve the odds for success, he said.

Anwar Ishqi, a political analyst, said several diplomatic efforts that preceded the summit would facilitate a solution to the present situation in the Middle East. He said it has helped in creating a better atmosphere for the summit.

Prior to the summit, King Abdullah held a series of meetings and made contacts with Arab leaders. He sponsored the Makkah Agreement that has led to the formation of the Palestinian unity government. He also held talks with Syria and Iran.

Arab diplomats in Saudi Arabia refused to do any guesswork. Until now, they keep to the obvious: the summit will address the situation in Palestine, Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan and Somalia, and will seek to promote closer Arab political and economic relations, with special attention to issues of development and reform.

The venue, the date and agenda of the annual Arab summit have always proven material for debate, speculation and controversy.

Whether this one would come up with something different or not is something that the coming week will answer.